05/12/2026
"Tuesday's Tips"
Prepare Now as Fall Will Look Completely Different
I have spent a good amount of my time researching what is on the horizon for us as consumers in the coming months and Fall seems to be the projected target date for when we will feel more pain at the grocery store, not just at the pump. This is not a doom and gloom post; it's a post to share with y'all the reality of how things will change for us in the coming months and how you can prepare now so it's not as painful.
We all know tariffs went into effect in 2025, what you may not have realized is that the true effect of these tariffs hasn't been felt just yet. Now let me make myself very clear before I go any further, this is in no way a political post and I do not want to see any rants in the comments about how we got where we are now, we are here regardless and I'm simply sharing my thoughts with you on how to prepare and why you should prepare now and not wait till Fall/Winter.
When the tariffs first hit other countries, the United States had a stockpile of supplies on hand for consumers. Yes, we've been seeing price increases, but the worst is yet to come, and it will. Once the current inventory of consumer products is gone, that's when pricing will go up. This will not be a sporadical hit, it will be flat out sticker shock for many of us.
According to the USDA Food Outlook Forecast on average food will increase by 2.6%, a historically high estimate. The problem is eggs and dairy are down in price which clouds the forecast as things such as beef & veal being up 12.2% on average, coffee 19% on average and sugar and sweets up 6.7% on average. So, if eggs and dairy are excluded from the forecast, the food increase is much higher.
Aside from tariffs, there are other factors that will cause pricing to skyrocket come Fall. 70% of US farmers cannot afford fertilizer and diesel to operate their farms. This is why many farms are shutting down operations completely. This is also what is going to cause a shortage of wheat and rice grown in the United States. Another problem that America is facing is commercial packaging companies that require aluminum for our canned goods. To produce additional inventory of aluminum cans, they will be buying aluminum that has tariffs attached to it. This will impact all canned produce and fruits, canned seafood and canned meat. What about pasta? What do you need to make pasta...wheat and when there is no wheat it will affect not just pasta but bread, anything that required flour will be higher in price.
What transports consumer products? Diesel and I'm sure you've seen the price at the pump, we have a diesel truck, so we see it. With diesel costs rising almost daily this greatly effects the cost we as consumers will be paying. If those trucks stop running, things stop moving. This is also not included in the USDA Food Forecast. But what is included is what is expected to rise in costs for Fall/Winter of 2026. This includes beef and veal, olive oil, canned seafood and canned meats, coffee, canned produce and fruits, sugar, garlic and spices...especially turmeric and cumin which are imported. All imported spices will be 30-40% higher in price. And last but not least fresh produce and fruits with tomatoes projected to be the highest increase.
There is no need to panic, shelves will not be bare, but they will look different. Product brands may change but it will be available. The costs to buy groceries will be increasing higher than it is now. So, what can you do now to prepare you and your family?
1. Check your pantry and freezer for proteins you currently have. If you find a good sale right now, buy more than one of you can.
2. Stock up on dried beans and white rice.
3. If you bake, stock up on all your baking needs.
4. If you use a lot of canned produce/fruit, stock up on it now. Wal-mart is still under $0.80 a can for Great Value brand.
5. Think long term, if you can afford it supplement your pantry with dehydrated or freeze-dried food.
6. Clothing and shoes will be impacted, and Fall is back to school shopping so find good sales now or simply shop Thrift Stores as I now do.
7. Think about auto supplies like windshield wipers, oil, filters, etc., the majority are imported.
8. If you currently do not home can food, think about it while pressure canners are still at a reasonable price. I do not know what I would do if I hadn't been canning our gardens and whatnot over the past couple of years.
It's overwhelming to think about, downright frustrating too at least it was for me as I researched this information. We will never see 2019 pricing again; our lives all changed in 2020 and continue to change daily when it comes to things we purchase. As much as I hate to say it, this is our new normal that will seeming change every time the wind blows.
I hope this information has been helpful to you, do what you can now to prepare for what's ahead.